The average temperature in Brazil reached a record level for the fourth month in a row in October. According to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), between July and October, the difference between the recorded value and the historical average – a variation that is technically called “deviation” – was greater than 1 degree Celsius (°C).
According to the Inmet survey, last month, the average temperature observed in Brazil was 26.4°C. The result was 1.2°C above the historical average for the month (25.2°C).
“Among the four hottest consecutive months this year, September showed the biggest deviation since 1961, with 1.6ºC above the climatology of 1991/2020 (historical average)”, informed Inmet. That month, the average temperature recorded was 25.8°C, while the historical average was 24.2°C.
In August this year, the average temperature was 24.3°C – a result 1.4°C above the historical average (22.9°C) and, in July, the observed average (23°C) was more than 1 °C above the historical average (21.9°C).
Inmet adds that these months “were marked by extreme heat in a large part of the country and heat wave events, reflecting the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon [aquecimento acima da média das águas do Oceano Pacífico Equatorial]which tends to favor an increase in temperature in several regions of the planet”.
The increase in global land surface and ocean temperatures also contributes to increasingly extreme events.
“The scenario indicates that the year 2023 will be the hottest since the 1960s. These results corroborate the perspectives found by other international meteorological bodies, as, according to researchers from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, it is unlikely that the last two months of this year will reverse this record, given that the trend is for high temperatures across the world until November”, added Inmet.
The heat is expected to continue over the next few days. Given the situation, Inmet issued an alert predicting a new “heat wave” that will hit the interior of Brazil especially.
“The special meteorological warning of yellow level (potential danger) of heat wave covers areas of the Central-West and Southeast of the country and is valid until at least next Friday (10)”, detailed, in a note, the institute when explaining that the yellow level “is issued when the forecast indicates that temperatures should be 5ºC above average for a period of two to three consecutive days”.
Inmet adds that the expectation is that the “strong heat” will continue, at least, until the middle of next week. However, the area covered by the phenomenon must change.
“From Saturday (11), if the situation persists, the heat wave warning will be updated and may expand or even have its severity level changed. In some municipalities, mainly in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, maximum temperatures are expected to exceed 42°C in the coming days”, added the institute.