Retail sales grow in MG with impact from supermarkets

Minas Gerais retail sales rose 3.2% in September 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. The office, IT and communication equipment and materials sector grew 50.5% and recorded the biggest positive change in the period. The biggest impact on the result was exerted by hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, drinks and tobacco, with an increase of 10.1%.

The data is part of the seasonally adjusted series of the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC), released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The Statistical and Geographic Information analyst at the entity in Minas Gerais, Daniel Dutra, highlights that the hypermarket and supermarket segment, which accounts for more than 45% of total retail, has been showing positive rates this year and sustaining the progress of activity in the State .

“The hypermarket and supermarket sector is the one that stands out most in the growth of retail trade in the year 2023 and one of the main motivating factors for this, among others, is the increase in the average worker income and inflation at lower levels than last year”, explains Dutra. It is worth mentioning that the segment presented increasing results in the last 14 months when compared to the same months in the previous year.

On the other hand, the fuels and lubricants category ended the ninth month of 2023 with a 22% drop in sales, halting an even greater advance in Minas Gerais retail during the period. The analyst clarifies that, since the end of the federal tax relief on fuels, products have become more expensive at the pumps again, which may have led to the reduction in the segment.

Decrease of 0.3% compared to August and increase of 2.9% in the year

Specifically in relation to August, IBGE data show that retail sales in Minas Gerais fell 0.3% in September. In this case, the entity does not detail the results by activities. Dutra emphasizes that, despite the decrease, the State’s retail, in general, has been growing in 2023, and, in nine months, it registered only two negative rates.

Based on this scenario cited by the analyst, the volume of retail sales in Minas Gerais accumulated growth of 2.9% between January and September this year compared to the same period last year. The highlights in this comparison basis are also the sectors of office equipment and materials, IT and communication and hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with increases of 7.8% and 6%, respectively.

When analyzing the moment in retail, the chief economist at the Development Bank of Minas Gerais (BDMG), Izak Carlos Silva, observes that some segments linked to credit, such as vehicles and motorcycles, have been recovering with the decline in the Selic rate. On the other hand, sales of other activities, especially restricted retail trade, have slowed down somewhat with the cooling of the job market and a smaller increase in average real family income.

This context, according to Silva, is resulting in a rebalancing of the family consumption basket, which brings favorable prospects for the State’s retail results in the coming months. According to the economist, the expectation is that the economy’s interest rate will fall yet again in December, boosting the sale of products associated with credit. And the tendency is for income-related segments to continue to perform positively.

“For the growth of these segments associated with credit, we are talking about the reduction of the Selic and also the seasonality at the end of the year, a period in which everyone changes their television, car to travel, buys a refrigerator, a microwave, makes a home renovation. So this should help. We also have Black Friday, which, in general, boosts commerce and service activities,” he said. “The segments associated with income should continue to perform well.”