2023 is expected to be the hottest year in history, but 2024 could surpass the mark


The El Niño phenomenon is expected to affect the world’s climate until at least April 2024. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), thanks to the phenomenon, 2023 is on track to be considered the hottest year in history, and 2024 should be even worse.

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The peak of El Niño is scheduled for November, December and January, but the development of the phenomenon is already felt in 2023. Previously, the year 2016 was the hottest on record. The record is a combination of several factors: a strong El Niño and a rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere.

— Next year will be even hotter. This is a clear consequence of the increasing contribution of greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities — says WMO Secretary-General, Petteri Taalas.

What to expect for summer in Santa Catarina

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The WMO secretary also warns that extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires and floods will be more common in some regions and may generate greater impacts.

According to the European observatory Copernicus, October 2023 broke a temperature record: it was the hottest ever recorded worldwide. The average air temperature was 15.3°C, 0.4°C above the previous hottest October, 2019.

Higher temperatures are already a reality (Photo: NSC Archive)

SC must have winter and summer temperatures on the same day

2024 could be even hotter than 2023 (Photo: NSC Archive)

SC must have winter and summer temperatures on the same day

2023 broke the record for high global temperatures (Photo: NSC Archive)

SC must have winter and summer temperatures on the same day

El Niño phenomenon should influence the climate at least until April 2024 (Photo: NSC Archive)

SC must have winter and summer temperatures on the same day

Greenhouse gas emissions accelerate global warming (Photo: NSC Archive)

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Intense El Niño

According to Epagri/Ciram meteorologist, Marcelo Martins, El Niño this year is considered strong, characterized by an increase in the Ocean’s surface temperature. In the quarter of August, September and October, this temperature was 1.5°C above average.

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In addition to heat, another characteristic of El Niño is the heavy rains, like those in October in Santa Catarina. For more than 10 days, the state was hit by consecutive floods.

SC and Climate Extremes: Where everything happens

In October, Santa Catarina recorded more than 400 millimeters of rain, practically double the expected amount for the month, which was 250 millimeters in some regions, such as the West.

On the 31st, the State government recognized a public calamity situation in four cities: Laurentino, Rio do Oeste, Rio do Sul and Taió. At least 3.6 million people were directly or indirectly affected by the floods, equivalent to 47% of the population of Santa Catarina, and 153 municipalities declared an emergency situation (52% of the total number of cities in the state and 45% of the state’s GDP).

Check out the infographic how El Niño works

With information from g1.

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Under the influence of El Niño, November will have above average rain and cold episodes in SC

Temperature rises and can exceed 30°C in SC this Wednesday


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The article is in Portuguese

Tags: expected hottest year history surpass mark



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