AgResource cuts estimates for Brazil soybean and corn harvests

SÃO PAULO (Reuters) – The Brazilian soybean harvest for the 2023/24 season, with planting still under development, will be smaller than expected due to climate issues that affect producers from the north to the south of the country, AgResource Brasil said on Wednesday , which made an even more drastic cut in expectations for corn.

The estimate is now for a soybean harvest of 156.08 million tons, versus 159.63 million tonnes forecast in October, while the forecast for corn production increased to 123.50 million tonnes, versus 129.69 million last month.

The analysis company, a subsidiary of the North American AgResource Company, had been working with an estimate for Brazil’s soybean harvest approximately 2% below the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) number and 1.4% below the forecast of the Brazilian state-owned company Conab. “The difference now increases to -3.66%”, he said in a report.

The review was motivated by the continued level of high temperatures and normal percentage of rainfall below expectations so far in central-northern Brazil.

“With the proximity of the critical water stages of soybeans, in addition to the news of replanting, diseases, delays and even a reduction in area in the most varied states, it is necessary to rearrange the data”, he stated.

According to AgResource, other factors that “confirmed the readjustments were reports of planting delays in the south-southeast region of the country and the excess rainfall that continues to disrupt planting and crop management.”

“For now, even though it is a relatively smaller number, it is still a great harvest, but optimism is giving way to concern and the trend is for a harvest with more challenges than initially imagined” he commented.

“Soybean plants are resilient and there is a prospect of recovery, but time continues to pass and climate models are showing a conflicting result in the outcome initially imagined for the national harvest.”

With the delay in soybeans, expectations for corn were also impacted and tended to reduce initial estimates, according to the consultancy.

The cereal harvest is projected at 123.50 million tons, 3.4% above Conab’s 119.40 million and far from USDA’s 129 million.

(By Roberto Samoraima)