On the last day of October, Santa Catarina’s Civil Defense released a climate forecast for the quarters of November, December and January 2024.
The note from meteorologists Nicolle Reis and Elen Pelissaro informs that during this period, the rains that occur more broadly in winter and spring will occur in a more localized way, due to the greater availability of heat and humidity.
The months of November and December are marked by rainfall volumes between 125 and 200 mm in Santa Catarina. In the month of January, it usually rains 200 to 250 mm between the plateaus and the coast of Santa Catarina, and in points on the North Coast and South Coast the accumulation exceeds these values, reaching up to 300 mm.
In the rest of the state, the monthly accumulations are between 150 and 200 mm.
The El Niño phenomenon continues to act with strong intensity throughout the next quarter, favoring more frequent and intense rains in all regions of Santa Catarina.
Therefore, the expectation is that rainfall volumes will be above average in Santa Catarina this quarter, especially this month.
In November, the last month of spring, rainfall is still expected to occur extensively in the state, with volumes above the climatological average.
In December and January, during the summer period, rain occurs predominantly in the form of storms, and, with El Niño, even more intense instabilities are expected, with significant accumulations in a short period of time. With the rains less comprehensive, In both December and January, the accumulated figures should vary within or above expectations.
In addition to influencing the precipitation regime, El Niño also influences temperatures.
As summer approaches, temperatures that are already high tend to be close to above average in the state, resulting in even hotter days.
With the forecast of more frequent rains and storms In Santa Catarina, due to El Niño, there is an increase in the chance of occurrences associated with meteorological conditions, such as roofing, damage to the electrical network, flooding, flash floods and floods.