Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) appeared for the first time in the isolated leadership of the voting intentions for the Government of Rio de Janeiro, according to a Datafolha poll released this Thursday (22), ten days before the first round of the election.
The reelection candidate scored 36%, against 26% for his main rival, federal deputy Marcelo Freixo (PSB). It is the first time that the two are not in a technical tie in a survey by the institute.
Castro advanced five percentage points in relation to the last poll, carried out last week. Freixo, in turn, fluctuated one point down compared to the previous survey — the margin of error is three percentage points, more or less.
The survey, commissioned by the Sheet and by TV Globo, it was carried out from Tuesday (20) to Thursday (22) and interviewed 1,526 voters in the state. The research is registered with the TSE under the number RJ-07687/2022.
The current governor has managed to maintain an upward trend in his voting intentions since the beginning of the campaign. The move is in line with the improvement in the evaluation of its management, which reached approval of 32% in this survey, compared to 28% in the previous survey.
With the longest TV time among the candidates, the evolution indicates success in the strategy of defending projects under his management. Castro has parted ways with former governor Wilson Witzel, of whom he was deputy until he replaced him due to an impeachment action, and said he has been at the head of the state for just two years.
Freixo, in turn, has not yet managed to take advantage of the leadership of former President Lula (PT) in the state to significantly improve its performance in Datafolha polls.
Castro also extended his advantage over the PSB candidate in an eventual second round between the two. The difference, which was two percentage points, is now eight. The governor fluctuated from 43% last week to 46%, while Freixo dropped from 41% to 38%.
In the first round simulation, the two leaders are still distant from the former mayor of Niterói Rodrigo Neves (PDT), who registered 8%. Supported by the mayor of Rio, Eduardo Paes (PSD), he also failed to improve his performance after 35 days of electoral campaign. Neves is in a technical tie with former governor Wilson Witzel (PMB), Cyro Garcia (PSTU), Eduardo Serra (PCB) and Juliete (UP), all with 2%.
Paulo Ganime (Novo) and Luiz Eugênio (PCO) registered 1% of voting intentions.
Witzel registered the candidacy, but is ineligible due to the punishment imposed in the impeachment process that permanently removed him from office in April 2021. He tries to reverse the impediment in court.
12% of respondents declared a blank or null vote, and 9% said they were undecided.
In the spontaneous poll, in which no scenario is presented to the voter, Castro was mentioned by 25% of the interviewees, and Freixo, by 16%. Neves was mentioned by 3%, and 2% said “current governor”.
Bounce rates remained stable. Almost half of the respondents (49%) stated that they would not vote for Witzel at all. Freixo has a rejection of 27%, and Castro, 21%. Then come Juliete and Garcia (14% each), Serra and Ganime (10% each), Luiz Eugênio and Neves (9% each).
Witzel is the most popular candidate among voters, alongside Freixo (81%), followed by Castro (80%), Neves (52%), Garcia (51%), Serra (32%), Ganime (23%), Juliete (15%) and Luiz Eugênio (10%).