Datafolha: columnists analyze the results of this Thursday’s presidential poll; watch videos | Elections 2022

In comparison with the previous survey by Datafolha, on September 15, Lula fluctuated two percentage points up. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, remained at the same level.

In addition, Datafolha points out that Ciro Gomes (PDT) has 7% of voting intentions – one percentage point less than in the previous survey. Simone Tebet (MDB) remained with 5%.

  • SPECIAL PAGE: See the complete data from the Datafolha survey

In the valid votes, when null, white and undecided votes are excluded, Lula appears with 50%. According to Datafolha, it is not possible to say whether or not the election will be decided in the first round.

Commentators from g1 and Globonews assess that Lula is closer to victory in the first round and that there is a movement for a useful vote, so that the election is decided on October 2nd.

See the reviews below:

Datafolha to the Presidency: ‘The impression is that there is already movement of useful votes’, says Mauro Paulino

For commentator Mauro Paulino, the latest surveys by the Datafolha Institute indicate a tendency for Lula to increase in voting intentions, even if the current result shows an oscillation within the margin of error.

Mauro also believes that a movement for a useful vote has started in the first round.

“Because this is a very stable election with [de pesquisas] that are repeated, voters already have the impression that Lula and Bolsonaro are going to contest the second round. So, there are already voters practicing useful voting in recent weeks.”

Mauro Paulino also assesses that abstentions should define whether or not there will be a second round.

“They can be unfavorable to Lula if the profile of previous elections is maintained. But if there is a climate of fear of going to the polls or threats, this can also have the opposite direction: make voters want to go to the polls. for the elections to end in the first round.”

‘Puts Lula closer to winning in the 1st round’, says Miriam Leitão about Datafolha

Journalist Miriam Leitão assesses that Bolsonaro is stagnant in the polls. On the other hand, for her, the result of the survey carried out by Datafolha puts Lula closer to victory in the first round.

“I’ve talked to people who said, ‘What should I look at in this survey? See if it confirms the trend of keeping distance or increasing distance.’ And there was an increase in distance.”

Julia Duailibi: 'Uncertainty helps move useful votes'

Julia Duailibi: ‘Uncertainty helps move useful votes’

for the commentator of GloboNews Julia Duailibi, the uncertainty about whether or not there will be a second round is helping to move the useful vote.

“When you have data that shows a greater probability of not having the second round, this leads people not to cast a useful vote. For Lula, this lack of definition helps.”

Camarotti: Useful vote and Bolsonaro threats can benefit Lula in the final stretch

Camarotti: Useful vote and Bolsonaro threats can benefit Lula in the final stretch

For commentator Gerson Camarotti, the fact that Lula registered 47% of voting intentions puts the former president closer to a victory in the first round.

“This becomes something important for the campaign of ex-president Lula,” he said.

In addition, for Camarotti, Bolsonaro’s “threat of not respecting the result of the first round” favored the PT candidate.

“This ended up creating a movement to unite various sectors of society, and this, in some way, ends up benefiting former President Lula, who is trying to capitalize on this useful vote in the final stretch.”

Flávia: 'Bolsonaro's strategies have run out without effect'

Flávia: ‘Bolsonaro’s strategies have run out without effect’

For journalist Flávia Oliveira, the political strategies of the last week were more favorable to former president Lula.

Flávia recalled the political support that PT received from former presidential candidates, such as Marina Silva and Henrique Meirelles. The journalist also highlighted the support of Miguel Reale Júnior, who was the author of the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff.

On the other hand, for Flávia, Bolsonaro’s strategies were exhausted without deed.

“They made a huge investment in Sete de Setembro. Before that, they had already made a move to circumvent the law, to pour money from the budget into social policy. A huge investment in the image of First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro. a rally in London and then his own campaign speech in the UN rostrum.”

Datafolha: Lula has 49% among the female electorate; Bolsonaro, 29%; Cyrus and Tebet 6%

Datafolha: Lula has 49% among the female electorate; Bolsonaro, 29%; Cyrus and Tebet 6%

The commentator of GloboNews Valdo Cruz says that the result of the Datafolha poll reveals a consolidation of the electorate’s rejection of President Jair Bolsonaro. Valdo highlighted the female vote.

“Bolsonaro had been trying to make a move to reduce his rejection of the female audience and improve his voting intentions in this segment of the electorate.

Valdo Cruz also cited as an example Bolsonaro’s speech in the Sete de Setembro acts, when he called himself “imbrochable”.

“That comment by the president hit the female electorate very badly,” he said.

VIDEOS: Election Center

The article is in Portuguese

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