Risk aversion on the part of global investors weighed on markets in recent days, preventing a stronger rise in the Ibovespa in August. Even so, the index advanced 6% in the period, to 109,522 points, increasing the accumulated appreciation in 2022 to 4.5%.
The entry in September, after the second quarter balance sheet crop and with expectations about a possible end of the cycle of high interest rates, made the brokers monitored by the InfoMoney promote various changes to their recommended stock portfolios. This month, the share equivalent to the total number of companies replaced in the portfolios was 25.5%, against 18% in August.
Even with the higher turnover in general, the preference of analysts remains concentrated in commodities and banks, with a hint of retail.
The main change is that Vale (VALE3) lost its isolated leadership in monthly monitoring, for the first time this year. The mining company received six nominations, one less than last month, and is now tied with Assaí (ASAI3) and Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) at the top of the list.
“Considering the more complex external environment and the decline in commodities, we kept the Petrobras shares (PETR4) and removed Vale (VALE3), mainly due to the volatility of iron ore prices”, says BB Investimentos, explaining one of its reviews for September.
The second block of highlights of the month brings as a novelty the Totvs papers (TOTS3), with five notes, which replaced Lojas Renner – replaced by four analysis houses.
Petrobras (PETR4) lost a recommendation compared to August, but remains among the most cited, also present in the list prepared by five institutions.
In its September report, BTG Pactual states that foreign flows have recently returned, helping the local exchange. “While local equity funds suffered redemptions for another month, foreigners allocated BRL 18 billion to Brazilian equities in August, pushing up share prices.”
According to the institution, the return of foreign capital last month could perhaps be a sign that such investors finally feel “ok” about Brazil’s presidential elections.
“While recent data does not show any significant trends, our recent conversations with global investors indicate increased interest in the Brazilian market, especially for those looking to reduce their exposure to China,” says BTG.
At Agora, the perception is that, with the drop in interest rates on the radar, customers are starting to want to take a little more risk. “For the investor who is long, it is interesting to keep the positions”, says the broker. “If you don’t have anything on your purse, it seems like a good opportunity to get in considering current levels.”
O InfoMoney analyzes every month the portfolios recommended by ten brokers, pointing out the five companies most cited by analysts. The number may be higher if there is a tie – which did not happen this month.
See below the five most indicated stocks for September, the number of recommendations and the performance of each stock in the accumulated of August, in 2022 and in 12 months:
|Company||ticker||number of recommendations||return in august||Return in 2022||Return in 12 months|
Sources: Ágora, Ativa, BB Investimentos, BTG Pactual, Elite, Genial, Guide, Órama, Santander Corretora, XP Investimentos and economics
Check now the highlights of each of the companies selected for the month, according to reports released by the brokers:
The miner lost a recommendation, for the second consecutive month, and now appears in six of the ten portfolios monitored by the InfoMoney for september. As a result, it started to share the podium with Assaí and Itaú Unibanco.
Ágora was one of the brokers that maintained Vale’s recommendation. In a report, he says he recognizes the growing challenges surrounding the company’s operations, but supports the bet “in a tactical way”.
The institution expects demand trends in China to improve in the second half of the year, supporting commodity prices. Such a scenario, combined with the drop in sea freight costs, may increase the mining company’s results in this final stretch of the year, say analysts.
They comment that the market continues to price a correction in the values of iron ore to something around US$ 70/ton already from this second half of the year, something seen by Ágora as “excessively pessimistic”.
Regarding the balance sheet for the second quarter, the understanding is that Vale reported “weak” numbers, with Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) frustrating expectations. The positive highlight was the cash generation, of US$ 2.3 billion, and the minimum dividend report of US$ 3 billion.
“However, the fact that Vale has not announced an extraordinary dividend tranche may suggest that the company is a little more cautious about the outlook, although we do not rule out that extraordinary dividends will be announced at the end of the year.”
One of the novelties of last month, the retailer remained among the highlights of September, with six nominations.
Assaí left the portfolio recommended by Ágora this month, but joined the selection of Ativa Investimentos and remains among the choices of five other institutions.
In a report, Ativa highlights the company’s geographic expansion strategy, having as a central point the conversion and integration of the 70 stores acquired from Extra. According to the broker, the new units are well located and have little overlap with the current ones, in addition to being at a more advanced stage of the maturation curve.
Analysts recall that the company started the delivery of converted Extra stores at the end of July and maintains the goal of opening 40 of these units throughout this second semester. The other 30 are scheduled for 2023. There are also organic openings, which, added to the conversions, contribute to a total of 96 stores in two years, expanding the company’s base by 45%.
“In addition, we see the strategy of greater autonomy of the regional offices, with the adaptation of assortments and the resumption of the strength of B2B [negócios diretos entre empresas]which started in 2Q22 [segundo trimestre]with the return of bars and restaurants, and should continue over the next few quarters as a catalyst for the company’s expansion.”
Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4)
The financial institution had been replaced in July, but returned this month to the portfolio recommended by BTG Pactual. As a result, even though he left the selection made by BB Investimentos, he was left with the same six notes as in August.
“Clearly, the mood at Itaú has improved, which probably has a lot to do with its stronger commercial growth in the last 18 months”, says BTG, for which the increase in revenue has again generated a series of opportunities, such as mergers and acquisitions, for example.
“Management admits that it has not been able to outperform its peers in recent years, but they truly believe that the next 5-10 years will show that ‘the winner’ is back.”
The report also states that, after presenting good results in the second quarter, Itaú revised its goals for 2022, which now point to a net profit of approximately R$31.5 billion, according to BTG estimates. “For 2023, we project R$34.2 billion in net income (vs. consensus of R$33.7 billion).”
Leader in systems and platforms for business management, Totvs is the novelty of the month, with five nominations. The company debuted on the list of Genial Investimentos and remained in four other portfolios.
Santander Corretora says it has recently updated its calculations on the company, which pointed to a new target price of R$36 for the end of 2023, versus R$41 for the end of this year.
The adjustment, according to the institution, is explained by an increase in Totvs’ cost of capital, downward revisions in the estimates of the “Business Performance” (support to increase sales, competitiveness and customer performance) and “Techfin” (solutions credit and payments through technology and data) and more conservative margin assumptions.
“However, the upside potential of 38% from current prices maintains the ‘Buy’ recommendation for TOTS3,” the report says. “We see the potential operational headwinds and rising interest rates already priced in at current share price levels.”
Santander also states that Totvs has solid financial perspectives and will continue to grow both organically, with the launch of new products, and through the acquisition of groups with complementary solutions.
Guide, which also has the asset in its September recommended portfolio, sees the company as one of the best positioned competitors in the technology sector in the country.
“Totvs’ investments with other large companies show that the company also has potential in exploring new businesses.”
The oil giant closes the list of the most cited stocks for September, also with five mentions – one less compared to last month, after leaving the selection made by BTG, which decided to reduce exposure to state-owned companies, understanding that the election result for President of the Republic may impact these roles in the short term.
At Ativa, however, the decision was in the opposite direction. The weight of Petrobras’ preferred shares (PN) increased to 12.5% in the portfolio prepared for September, compared to 10% in August. It is one of the biggest bets of the house for the period, tied with Itaú Unibanco.
“We believe that the company will continue to be one of the highlights of our stock exchange in terms of the payment of dividends throughout this second semester”, says the brokerage, for which the company is able to maintain a strong operating cash flow, considering a price of Brent oil close to US$ 100 a barrel.
“Despite the changes in its governance, we see stocks already pricing in such risks and showing a still large discount compared to peers”, say analysts at Ativa.
Guide also renewed its choice of the company this month and highlights the strong numbers presented in the second quarter, driven by the price of oil, in addition to the higher profit margins in the derivatives and natural gas businesses.
“We see the state-owned company increasingly efficient, with margins repeatedly showing improvements, and indebtedness progressively shrinking”, says the institution.
This condition, combined with the high level of cash generation and solid liquidity, enabled the company to recently announce a distribution of earnings equivalent to R$ 6.73 per ON and PN share, recalls the brokerage.
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