A indication from the IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index) that the Brazilian economy shrank 0.64% in the third quarter was accompanied by a worsening of expectations for progress in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — sum of all final goods and services produced in the country — this year.
According to projections presented this Monday (20) by Focus Bulletinfrom the BC (Central Bank), financial market analysts cut the expected growth of the national economy in 2023 from 2.89% to 2.85%.
The negative forecasts are accompanied by the expectation of an increase in the positive balance of trade, from US$76 billion to US$77 billion this year. For the next few years, there is an expectation of progressive reductions in the rate, but with an improvement in value compared to past estimates.
Analysts consulted weekly by the BC (Central Bank) also maintained the expectation of growth of the national economy for the next three years at, respectively, 1.5%, 1.5% and 2%.
• Click here and receive news from R7 on your WhatsApp
• Share this news via WhatsApp
• Share this news via Telegram
• Subscribe to the R7 em Ponto newsletter
Last week, the BC preview, collected from a base similar to that of the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), showed that the Brazilian economy fell 0.06% in September, after a drop of 0.8% recorded in August. With the two declines, economic activity shrank 0.64% between July and September. With the fluctuations, the IBC-Br is at its lowest level since May (146.74 points), but it still accumulates an increase of 2.77% this year and 2.5% in the last 12 months.
Even with the positive data, expectations for the advancement of the national economy in 2023 continue to be guided by positive performance of agribusiness in the first months of the year. For the second semester and next year, the forecasts signal slowdown.