Market expectations for the 2023 Central Government Primary Result worsened. An increase of R$3.4 billion was recorded in the projected deficit for 2023, which rose from R$110.1 billion to R$113.5 billion between the calculations October and November.
For the years 2024, 2025 and 2026, there is a worsening in expectations for the primary result. In 2024, there was an increase in the Central Government’s primary deficit projection of 7.0 pp when compared to the median projections recorded in the previous month. In relation to 2025, the increase was 7.4 pp and, in 2026, an increase of 14.8 pp
The data appears in the November Fiscal Prisma Report, released by the Economic Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Finance.
On the other hand, the evolution of GDP in 2023 and 2024 improved, as well as a drop in estimates related to the General Government’s Gross Debt.
The forecast for nominal GDP in 2023 increased to R$10.6 trillion, compared to R$10.6 trillion. For 2024, nominal GDP is calculated at R$11.3 trillion, compared to the previous estimate of R$11.3 trillion.
In November, the median market estimate indicates that gross debt will reach 75.81% of GDP this year (compared to the previous projection of 76%) and 78.8% in 2024 (compared to 79% in the August estimate).