In a bad year for multimarkets, should investors expect improvement or pocket the loss?

Among the doubts that have been on investors’ minds in recent months, one involves what to do with the multimarket funds they hold in their portfolio: redeem and admit the loss or maintain the allocation?

After stellar results from some houses last year, returns have been disappointing in 2023, leaving investors undecided about which decision to make. This is the case of managers such as Verde Asset Management, Legacy Capital and Vista Capital, which saw the houses’ flagship funds soar up to 24% in 2022, but now suffer returns below the CDI (reference rate for the class and assets of fixed income).

A flight over the industry shows the scale of the problem: actively managed multimarkets, grouped in the Anbima Hedge Funds Index (IHFA), presented, on average, a return of 4.25% this year, until November 7th — at the same time in which the CDI (reference rate for the class and fixed income assets) increased 11.22%.

The maintenance of a high Selic has encouraged the migration of investors to assets exempt from Income Tax and put even more pressure on multimarkets, which have registered a sharp drop in the number of shareholders.

Survey carried out by Economatica at the request of InfoMoney shows that, since the beginning of the year until this Tuesday (7), multimarkets lost more than 704 thousand shareholders. 4230 vehicles were analyzed. Exclusive and private credit funds were left out.

In total, there are more than 677 thousand multimarket funds across the industry, but several have few shareholders or a small structure in terms of assets.

Wait or rescue?

Although performance is below expectations in a large portion of multimarkets, the assessment of experts interviewed by the InfoMoney is that the investor should not redeem based on past returns and that the analysis of shorter return windows — between six and 12 months — is not recommended.

“Multimarkets are products with higher risk and volatility that can vary between 3% and 8%. When a class presents this risk profile, it tends to be more long-term than other more conservative investments, considers Carlos Macedo, investment allocation specialist at Warren Rena.

With an eye on obtaining more significant returns in the long term, Macedo’s tip is that the investor does not redeem the application just looking in the rear view mirror. According to him, a possible exit to fixed income products now could cause the investor to miss the first “leg” of growth, when trying to return to multimarkets later.

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Vitor Pitz, investment specialist at Suno, also argues that there is no reason to make a selling decision based on shorter returns. “It is important for investors to remember the reason that made them add this asset class to their portfolio.”

Multimarkets are often seen as a way to diversify the portfolio, because they can allocate across different asset classes. The main strategies tend to be macro, long and shortinvestment abroad, quantitative and multi-strategy.

The first involves products that can operate on exchange rates, stock markets and interest rates, and that adopt investment decisions based on macroeconomic scenarios.

The funds long and short are those who set up long operations (which benefit from the rise) and short operations (which gain from the devaluation) in shares, generally in pairs.

Multimarket investments abroad are those that allocate at least 40% of their net worth in financial assets abroad.

There are also quantitative ones that are based on complex algorithms and multi-strategy ones, which can adopt more than one investment strategy.

At XP, for example, the recommendation is that investors with a more cautious conservative profile set aside up to 10% of the portfolio to allocate in multimarkets. Those with a more moderate profile can invest between 20% and 21% of the portfolio, while more aggressive people should invest 14%.

Diversifying the portfolio: way to dilute risks

An option for those who wish to dilute risks is to diversify exposure between subclasses of multimarkets. Pitz points out that it is possible to take advantage of managers who have historically made good decisions in more nebulous macroeconomic environments, through positions in macro multimarkets.

Another option is to hold a portion allocated to quantitative funds. “If the shares in the portfolio as a whole decline in value, [os quantitativos] could be a good option, because they tend to operate short [se beneficiando do recuo das ações] in times of decline”, highlights Pitz.

Diversification has also been the keynote at XP. Although there is no ready formula, Rodrigo Sgavioli, head of allocation and funds at the house, states that a proportion of 50% of the portfolio allocated to macro multimarkets, 30% to quantitative multimarkets and 20% to multimarkets long and short neutral seems “satisfactory”. Multimarkets long and short neutral have the advantage of having zero net exposure, that is, operations that bet on rising shares are equivalent to those that benefit from falling shares.

Among the recent changes made to the portfolio is the allocation in macro multimarkets. “We made this change at the end of the first semester to try to favor products that can differentiate themselves. It’s better to have unrelated things than to go after a big bet”, ponders Sgavioli. Generally, the minimum percentage allocated to this subclass tends to vary between 50% and 70% of the multimarket portfolio.

Even though the moment is difficult for the class, the allocator argues that the great advantage of the products is the ability to adopt tactical exposure, which is more difficult to be replicated directly by individuals. “The person who tends to operate the first movement in the market is the multimarket manager. They are quick to perceive trends”, highlights the XP specialist.

American interest rates in focus

The lack of clear trends this year, in fact, is one of the factors that have dragged down the performance of multimarkets. After a more cloudy first half of the year in which managers had some difficulty pricing in where American interest rates would go, the signals given by the Federal Reserve (Fed, American central bank) last week, together with weaker activity data, could help in the search for clearer trends over the coming months.

“The conviction that the Fed has now entered a period of stabilization of American interest rates has increased,” says Macedo, from Warren Rena. For the expert, the view that the barrier is higher for raising interest rates is based on the release of weaker labor market data last week, in addition to greater concern on the part of the monetary authority with the tightening of financial conditions.

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Keeping an eye on a trend that seems to emerge with greater strength from now on, some houses have once again positioned themselves to close (retreat) rates in developed countries, in the case of Ibiuna.

In a monthly letter, the manager said that it “cautiously” returned to positions invested (benefiting from the fall) in interest rates in developed and emerging countries with the prospect of a fall or the beginning of the cutting cycle by the end of the year.