Ineep: Petrobras (PETR4) should profit R$ 26.2 billion in the 3rd quarter due to an increase in the production of oil and derivatives

Report released this Wednesday, 8th, by the Institute for Strategic Studies of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep) estimates net profit of R$ 26.2 billion for Petrobras (PETR3;PETR4) in the third quarter. This expected result, defined as “positive”, is due to the growth in the production and sale of oil and oil products in the period.

Ineep also estimates net revenue of R$126.2 billion and adjusted Ebitda of R$63.7 billion.

The company releases the financial statement for the period on Thursday, 9th, after the financial market closes.

Ineep’s estimates for the three indicators are below the averages of five financial institutions calculated by Prévias Broadcast (profit of R$31.1 billion, Ebitda of R$73 billion and revenue of R$136.8 billion).

According to Ineep, despite solid numbers and growing production, the financial result is below that recorded a year ago due to the drop in prices for a barrel of Brent oil and derivatives in the period.

In the comparison between the third quarter of 2023 and the same period of 2022, the average prices of Brent and derivatives fell, on average, 14.4% and 31.0% respectively. And the average value of derivatives on the domestic market went from R$687.00 per barrel to R$474.00 on the same basis of comparison.

“Not even the 4.5% increase in production volume and 1.3% in the sale of derivatives compensated for the lower prices”, says Ineep researcher Mahatma dos Santos.

Sales

According to Ineep, of the R$126.2 billion estimated as total revenue for the third quarter, 74% or R$93.8 billion came from sales to the domestic market, including oil and oil products.

Revenue from sales of derivatives should reach, according to researchers, R$77.6 billion from June to September, a drop of 30.2% compared to a year ago.

“Revenues from derivatives were impacted by the robust 31.0% drop in average derivative prices in the annual comparison. The biggest estimated drops were in the prices of LPG (cylinder gas), around 42.5%, followed by diesel (34.3%) and gasoline (12.2%)”, notes Santos.

According to him, the management’s decision to increase the utilization factor of its refining park, which reached an average of 96% in the third quarter, resulted in an increase of 4.5% in the production of derivatives and allowed an increase of 1.3% in the state-owned company’s sales volume nationwide, compared to the third quarter of last year. “This operational effort, however, was not enough to offset the drop in prices (of derivatives)”, it says.

On the crude oil side, sales were increased by the significant recovery (65%) in exports to China and Europe from the second to the third quarter of the year. “The boom in exports in 3Q23 meant a strong recovery in the segment, but still at a level 6.1% lower than that recorded in 3Q22”, points out Ineep.