The markets began this Friday (23) in a decline, following the assessment of the short, medium and long-term impacts of the decisions of most central banks to raise their interest rates to combat resistant inflation rates.
As a result of these monetary movements, the dollar has been strengthening against a basket of currencies, which brings greater fear of rising operating and financial costs for companies in various sectors around the world.
As if the “Super Wednesday” was not enough, this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks again, this time at an event promoted by the institution, in Washington, which should bring new directions to the markets, regarding the bullish cycle interest in the US.
The agenda is still empty, both here and abroad. Among the highlights of indicators is the release of the Industrial and Services Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) in the United States.
In Brazil, attention is focused on the last days of the electoral campaign. Last night, Datafolha raised the probability of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) winning in the first round of the dispute.
According to the survey, the former presidents rose two points and reached 47% of voting intentions, opening a 14-point lead over Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who remained at 33%. By valid votes, Lula would have 50% today.
1. World Scholarships
New York futures retreat under the continued impact of the 75 basis point hike announced by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and announcements that the monetary tightening will last for a long time. Since the announcement, stocks in sectors such as consumer goods and technology have been the hardest hit.
At the after market As of yesterday, Costco shares, for example, dropped more than 2.5%. The retailer showed good numbers for the fourth fiscal quarter, but said it is forecasting higher freight and labor costs for the coming months.
See the performance of the indices:
Dow Jones Future (USA), -0845%
S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.85%
Nasdaq Future (USA), -1.02%
Asian stocks also operated in sharply negative territory this Friday, as they continue to measure the impacts of more contractionary monetary policies. Nomura lowered its forecast for China’s annual growth in 2023 from 5.1% to 4.3%.
The downward movement in the region occurs despite positive news. Hong Kong, for example, is preparing to relax one of the most restrictive and extensive policies to combat covid. The quarantine for travelers in hotels and their circulation in cities is expected to fall as early as Monday.
It was also reported that inflation in Malaysia was in line with expectations, although Singapore’s consumer price index rose more than expected.
Check out how the bags closed:
Shanghai SE (China), -0.66%
Nikkei (Japan), -0.58%
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -1.18%
Kospi (South Korea), -1.81%
In Europe, falling markets echo not only the Fed, but also the decisions of local central banks yesterday. Switzerland, for example, raised interest rates by 75 basis points and exited a negative rate policy after seven years.
The Bank of England (BoE) raised its rate by 0.50 percentage point on renewed concerns over energy prices despite recent bailouts announced by the British government.
Today, the UK announced a new growth plan that includes the biggest package of tax cuts in generations.
On the mainland, oil and gas stocks are pushing the decline, while food and beverage, healthcare and retail maintain their upward bias.
See quotes from European indices:
FTSE 100 (UK), -1.67%
DAX (Germany), -1.46%
CAC 40 (France), -1.00%
FTSE MIB (Italy), -1.62%
In the commodity market, oil prices are falling sharply, with fears that the escalation of the war in Ukraine, promised by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will come true. But there is some prospect of maintaining demand on the horizon, especially in China.
The iron ore contract traded in Dalian (China) due in January 2023, rose 1.34% today, to US$ 101.03. The move was driven by expectations of higher Chinese demand. The approach of the Golden Week holiday in the country, which starts on October 1st, may have influenced prices.
WTI Oil, -1.94% at $81.87 a barrel
Brent crude, -1.68% at $88.94 a barrel
Iron Ore: +1.34% at $101.03
Bitcoin prices fall -0.27% to $19,130
Friday has few economic indicators to guide investors. Releases of purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) in Europe and the United States are expected this morning.
Here, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, participates in an event promoted by the Millennium Institute, in São Paulo.
Still in São Paulo, Guedes meets with the founding partner of the investment fund Global Infrastructure Partners, Matt Harris, and receives a group of executives and economists from banks and management companies.
10:45: Industrial PMI (September)
10:45: Services PMI
16:30: Speech by Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank
3. Economic news
Government projects first surplus in 9 years, but makes new budget block
The Economy Ministry on Thursday substantially improved its forecast for the central government’s 2022 fiscal result in its last official review of the figures ahead of the elections.
In this way, it started to forecast a primary surplus for the first time, marking the return of the accounts to the blue after consecutive leaks since 2014.
However, it announced an additional block of BRL 2.6 billion in funds from ministries to respect the spending ceiling.
Guedes claims to be against the nursing floor, but backs off
The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said yesterday (22) that he was personally against the salary floor for nursing, but, fearing the negative repercussion of the speech for the campaign of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), he abandoned an interview he was recording with journalist Luís Ernesto Lacombe for Rede TV.
The minister said that, “as a citizen”, he is against the floor, but he regretted it soon after. Therefore, he asked that the interview be interrupted and that it not be shown by the broadcaster.
4. Political news
Lula widens distance to Bolsonaro on Datafolha: 47% to 33%
Ten days before the elections, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) extended his advantage over his opponents in the dispute for the Planalto Palace. This is what a Datafolha survey showed this Thursday (22).
According to the survey, carried out between the 20th and 22nd of September, Lula has 47% of voting intentions – a positive oscillation of 2 percentage points in relation to the previous survey, released a week earlier.
President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), candidate for re-election, remained with 33%. The 14-point difference between the two is the biggest in a month.
The moving average of deaths in Brazil returned to stability after 18 days of decline. Brazil recorded this Thursday (22) 69 deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours, totaling 685,725 since the beginning of the pandemic.
As a result, the moving average of deaths in the last 7 days is 65. Compared to the average of 14 days ago, the variation was -15%, indicating a stability trend after 18 consecutive days of decline.
In total, the country recorded 7,784 new diagnoses of Covid-19 in 24 hours, completing 34,659,526 known cases since the beginning of the pandemic.
5. Corporate Radar
Let’s go (VAMO3)
The company’s board of directors approved the pricing of its subsequent offering at R$13.25 per share. The total amount of the capital increase was R$ 641.43 million.
O follow on is an operation restricted to qualified investors. Simpar, the majority shareholder, will hold 68.53% of the company upon completion of the offering.
The company’s board of directors approved the issuance of R$ 1 billion in simple, non-convertible debentures. 1 million bonds will be issued with a nominal value of R$ 1 thousand each.
The debentures will mature in five years from the issuance date. The funds raised, according to Movida, will be used to manage the company’s business, including working capital and fleet acquisition.
Renner Stores (LREN3)
Lojas Renner’s board of directors approved the payment of R$ 169.28 million in interest on equity. The amount corresponds to R$ 0.175 per share, subject to withholding income tax. The proceeds will be paid to whoever holds the paper on November 27. The share will be traded “ex” from the following day (28).
The builder and developer will distribute R$ 150 million in dividends, equivalent to R$ 0.515 per share. The dividend, which is based on the shareholding position on April 29, 2022, will be paid on September 30.