On Thursday, April 25th, at 1:43 pm, readers of Correio do Povo, the oldest newspaper in Rio Grande do Sul, were alerted that something important was available to them online. The title of the news said it all directly, in the old way:
“Danger scenario: RS will have excessive rain similar to the extremes of 2023, points out MetSul.”
And the line supporting the title completed:
“An episode of instability should occur between the end of April and the beginning of May.”
Bingo! I transcribe part of the news:
“MetSul Meteorologia warns of a scenario of intense instability and danger due to excessive precipitation and risk of storms in these last days of April and the beginning of May in the South of Brazil, particularly in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where rain is expected be more excessive with very high and extreme precipitation accumulations.
The scenario is very similar to those in the second half of last year that brought storms and excessive rain at the end of winter and during spring, at the height of the El Niño phenomenon. The accumulated rainfall must be so high in some points and in such a short period that a large number of localities in Rio Grande do Sul can reach 100% to 200% of the historical average rainfall in April or May, which can cause a series of risks and inconvenience to the population.
Porto Alegre and the Metropolitan Region are also expected to suffer from high volumes of rain. […] The vast majority of cities in Rio Grande do Sul should receive between 100 mm and 150 mm during the period, that is, what it usually rains in a month at this time of year, but in several places it can rain much more. Flooding of rivers and affected roads The persistence of rain for several days is also expected to cause flooding and probable flooding of several rivers. Some roads, particularly municipal and rural ones, are expected to become impassable with likely sections and ridges covered by water.
There is a risk of storms. This is because the instability will be constantly fed by hot air, which will favor the formation of highly charged clouds, which could cause isolated storms with lots of lightning, localized hail and occasional isolated gales.”
Therefore, it is not possible for the State government to say now that it was surprised by what happened, by what is still happening, and by what will still happen when the waters return to their original bed, opening space for the proliferation of diseases.
In less than a year, intense rains in Rio Grande do Sul claimed the lives of 110 people, more than the total recorded in natural disasters in the previous three decades. Persistent rains since the beginning of last week have so far left 55 dead and 70 missing.
It is “the biggest disaster in the history of the State”, says governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB), who calls for help. Almost 15 million people have left their homes, hundreds of thousands more are without water or electricity. Porto Alegre is practically isolated.
Leite is the same governor who on April 9th sanctioned the law that relaxes environmental rules for the construction of dams in permanent preservation areas, a measure defended by rural producers as a way to reduce the impacts of drought in the state.
Permanent preservation areas (APPs) comprise forests and other forms of natural vegetation, as well as areas located along rivers, lakes and natural reservoirs. The law received 35 votes in favor and 13 against in the Legislative Assembly.
The RS Agriculture Federation (Farsul) says that the law is important for the development of agribusiness. Francisco Milanez, scientific and technical director of the Gaúcha Association for the Protection of the Natural Environment, is against the law:
“The APPs are the sources of water. It’s like destroying the vegetable garden to build the kitchen. What are you going to cook next?”
For Clóvis Borges, executive director of the Society for Research in Wildlife and Environmental Education, Rio Grande do Sul lost its resilience to face climate extremes many decades ago:
“It was the first state to cover the entire territory with agricultural property. They practically eliminated their natural areas. 7% of the original area of the Atlantic Forest remains and the Pampas biome is one of the most threatened.”
A bill authored by federal deputy Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS) was approved in the Chamber in March this year. It authorizes the cutting of native non-forest vegetation – such as Pampa, part of the Cerrado and Pantanal.
In practice, an area equivalent to that of the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná of native forest could disappear from the map if the law is approved by the Senate.
